Just in time for Independence Day, a 1428-page bill passed by the House of Representatives last week on a close (219-212) vote will, if it becomes law, in effect be the largest tax increase in American history.

Although it doesn’t directly tax most citizens, its effect, according to economic analysis by the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis, will be to

• increase the average household’s direct energy costs by about $1,200 and other costs by about $3,400 per year for a combined $4,600 per year;
• reduce gross domestic product by about $9.4 trillion in the years 2012-2035;
• lower employment by almost 2 million jobs in its first year, reaching nearly 2.5 million in 2035;
• raise the national debt by about $115,000 per family of four over the same period; and
• raise all other prices by increasing the cost of the energy used to produce goods and services.

The main rationale for the bill is supposed to be reducing future global warming, but its likely impact by mid-century is only about 0.09 degree F reduction–an amount too small to detect and of no consequence to human or other ecological welfare. Supporters also argued that the bill would create jobs, but the employment loss is net–despite whatever “green jobs” are created, overall employment will be about 1.1 million less in the average year than it would have been without the bill.

Supporters cited a Congressional Budget Office report saying the bill would cost the average family only about $175 per year, not $4,600, but the Heritage Foundation points out that, among other flaws, the CBO report’s numbers are inconsistent, grossly underestimating costs and excluding the $9.4 trillion damage to the economy completely. Results similar to the Heritage Foundation’s were reached by the National Black Chamber of Commerce and the left-leaning Brookings Institution.

The bill now goes to the Senate, where a vote is anticipated this fall. Despite strong support from the House Democratic leadership, the bill was barely passed after weeks of back-room dealing and days of last-minute amendments, culminating in a 300-page amendment being added at 3:00 a.m. on the day of the vote. Supporters are likely to have even more difficulty getting it through the Senate, in part because of strong opposition in the farming community.

According to environmental economist Kenneth W. Chilton, “efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions necessarily result in higher energy costs that impact ‘the least among us’ most harshly. The Biblical command to care for the poor and deal with them justly should give us pause as we consider policies with almost no benefit and great cost to the least of these.”